Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Aug 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.6%. Yes opened at 20% on 27 Jun 2026. Before it settled, across the 35 daily closes on record from 27 Jun 2026 to 1 Aug 2026 (1 day in that span have no close), the highest close was 20% on 27 Jun 2026 and the lowest 0.1% on 14 Jul 2026. Its largest one-day move was 9.8 points down, to 10.2% on 28 Jun 2026. $7.95K traded over the market's life.
43 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Aug 1, 6:03 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 35 points, 27 Jun 2026 – 1 Aug 2026, chart shows 0%–25%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 27 Jun 2026 | 20.0% |
| 1 Aug 2026 | 0.4% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 10.82K |
| balthazar | Yes | 5.32K |
| Forch | Yes | 626.49 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public. Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/next-google-gemini-pro-model-released-onptptpt-20260626213101460
| Yes |
| 555.11 |
| Account11113 | Yes | 383.27 |
| ArieLethal | Yes | 157.08 |
| tf2132 | Yes | 147.9 |
| HerrieDavis | Yes | 135.01 |
| Turbulent-Decline-Router | Yes | 135 |
| meagainsttheworld | Yes | 134.99 |
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