Analytics
“Will the next Google Gemini Flash model be released on September 6, 2026?” is a prediction market on Polymarket with two tradeable outcomes, Yes and No. It belongs to the event “Next Gemini Flash Model (3.8+) released on...?”. The Yes price is the market's implied probability that the question resolves Yes. Quotes can change as orders are updated or filled; a quoted price does not guarantee an available fill at that price.
This market resolved No on 2 Sep 2026. $813.65 traded over its life. The price history, the holders still on the books and the trade tape below are kept as the record of how the crowd priced the question while it was open.
Vultax observes this market from Polymarket's public order book and data API and keeps its own record: 2 daily price points from Sep 1, 2026 UTC to Sep 2, 2026 UTC (Yes between 0.4% and 4.0%); 12 wallets still holding shares after settlement, the largest ten holding 100.0% of the loaded shares; 14 recent public fills from 13 wallets. Each figure carries its observation time; nothing here is a return forecast.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Flash model (3.8+) is made available to the general public. A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Gemini," be labeled "Flash" rather than "Flash-Lite," be positioned as Google's core general-purpose Gemini Flash model, and be designated as version 3.8 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 3.8 or higher named in the same manner as Gemini 3.6 Flash or Gemini 3.7 Flash would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Gemini 4 Flash, while models labeled "Flash-Lite" or which retain a version designation below 3.8, such as Gemini 3.7 Flash, including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Specialized modality variants, such as Gemini Flash Image, Gemini Flash-Lite Image, Gemini Omni Flash, or Flash TTS or Live models, will not qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/next-gemini-flash-model-3pt8-released-onptptpt-20260831193056503
Public Polymarket market/event context is available; Vultax source-pack coverage is tracked separately.
This closed market has no live orderbook depth; the public close quote is shown for context.
Nine stops, one per figure on this page. Each stop says what the number is, why it matters, and what it reads right now for this market.
Each outcome trades as a share that pays $1 if it wins and nothing if it loses. Prices are quoted in cents, and Yes plus No add up to about one dollar.
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB · 2 points · 1 Sep 2026 – 2 Sep 2026 · axis zoomed to 0%–10%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 1 Sep 2026 | 4.0% |
| 2 Sep 2026 | 0.4% |
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 10.97K |
| balthazar | Yes | 5.5K |
| Bigggggggg | Yes |
The Yes price read as a chance. A share at 21.5¢ implies 21.5%, but fees, available depth and who participates can affect that price. A market price is not a calibrated forecast or a verdict.
Dollar value of shares that changed hands in the last 24 hours. High volume means the price is being tested by real money; low volume means a few trades can move it.
Reported dollars resting in the order book. The available size on your side, at the prices you would accept, determines what can fill. A large total alone does not guarantee an execution near the quoted price.
The gap between the best bid and the best ask. A tight spread makes entry and exit cheap; a wide spread is a cost paid on every round trip.
The wallets holding the most shares on each side, and how much of the loaded sample the largest ten control. Concentration shows whether a market is a crowd or a handful of large positions.
The public fills, newest first: which wallet bought or sold which outcome, at what price, and when. It is the market's own diary, and every wallet on it links to a trader profile.
Observed closes of the Yes price over the market's life. The range shows how sure or split the crowd has been; the move shows which way it has been changing its mind.
Trading stops at the close time. The outcome is then settled by the resolution source named in the rules. A closed market is not resolved until the venue reports it, so the two states are shown separately.
| 3.96K |
| god83743894 | Yes | 406.3 |
| quietparcel | Yes | 127 |
| e46m3 | Yes | 68.29 |
| sanduspace | Yes | 52.05 |
| mustbethewater | Yes | 33.47 |
| TENETENET | Yes | 10 |
| bjprolo | Yes | 8 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
