Analytics
Yes is at 4.9%, about where the market opened on 3 Oct 2026.
Across the 19 daily closes on record from 3 Oct 2026 to 25 Oct 2026 (5 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 11.8% on 10 Oct 2026 and the lowest 0.1% on 14 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 0.6%. Its largest one-day move was 9.5 points down, to 0.3% on 12 Oct 2026.
October 26 ranks fourth of the 8 outcomes in “Next Fable Model (5.2+) released on...?”. No release by October 31 leads at 62.5%; October 27 is at 18.1%.
$424.22 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $8.73K since listing. The order book holds $3.57K, with a 6.8% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 174 trades, $61.43 bought Yes and $3.79K bought No.
The largest Yes position is balthazar with 1.5K shares; the largest No position is Indigo Signal 2966 with 6.6K. Ten wallets hold 86.4% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 27 Oct 2026, 2 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 25, 10:00 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 19 points, 3 Oct 2026 – 25 Oct 2026, chart shows 0%–15%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 3 Oct 2026 | 4.0% |
| 25 Oct 2026 | 4.9% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 6.58K |
| balthazar | Yes | 1.52K |
| Xeny | Yes | 1.38K |
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Anthropic's next Fable model (5.2+) is made available to the general public. A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Fable" and be designated as version 5.2 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 5.2 or higher named in the same manner as Claude Fable 5 or Claude Fable 5.1 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Claude Fable 6, while models whose name does not include "Fable" or which retain a version designation below 5.2, such as Claude Fable 5.1 or Claude Mythos 5.1, will not qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/next-fable-model-5pt2-released-onptptpt-20261002
| Pump |
| Yes |
| 1.33K |
| Martinus- | No | 402.9 |
| raffou | Yes | 399.98 |
| Amber Falcon 69A6 | No | 366.47 |
| AJSV | Yes | 338.32 |
| Dr.PNL | Yes | 302.6 |
| GingerMcKenna | Yes | 300.36 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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