Analytics
Resolved No on 28 Sep 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.4%. Yes opened at 27% on 22 Sep 2026. Before it settled, the high was 27% on 22 Sep 2026 and the low 0.6% on 28 Sep 2026. Its largest one-day move was 20 points down, to 7.5% on 23 Sep 2026. $3.29K traded over the market's life.
12 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Sep 29, 4:03 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 7 points, 22 Sep 2026 – 28 Sep 2026, chart shows 0%–40%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 22 Sep 2026 | 27.0% |
| 28 Sep 2026 | 0.6% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| nana130299 | Yes | 62.75 |
| .Menthe | Yes | 50 |
| balthazar | Yes | 47.04 |
| PPMT | Yes | 30 |
| cactus-test | Yes | 13.01 |
| TENETENET | Yes | 10 |
| bjprolo | Yes | 8 |
| V4Mb7vN6JDACV1 | Yes | 8 |
| easyautomate | Yes | 7.25 |
| triklozoid | Yes | 5 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's next Claude Sonnet model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Claude Sonnet refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Sonnet. Qualifying models include Claude Sonnet 5.1, Claude Sonnet 5.5, Sonnet 6, or any other Sonnet variants. Models under any other name, such as Opus, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Sonnet by Anthropic. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/next-claude-sonnet-released-byptptpt-20260701203831153
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