Will the next Claude Opus 4.8 model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score between 1490 and 1500?

Resolved

No, settled Jun 8, 2026 UTC

Yes

0.0%

100.0%

Final Yes 0¢Final No 100¢

Lifetime volume

$14.4K

Resolved

Settled

Jun 8, 2026 UTC

Where it stands

Resolved No on 8 Jun 2026.

The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.7%. Yes opened at 36.5% on 29 May 2026. Before it settled, across the 11 daily closes on record from 29 May 2026 to 8 Jun 2026, the highest close was 69.5% on 6 Jun 2026 and the lowest 0.4% on 8 Jun 2026. Its largest one-day move was 69 points down, to 0.7% on 7 Jun 2026. $14.35K traded over the market's life.

19 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Jun 9, 5:05 AM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 11 points, 29 May 2026 – 8 Jun 2026

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
29 May 2026	36.5%
8 Jun 2026	0.4%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
Pastel-Achievement	Yes	400
Royal Harbor 217A	Yes	208.99
fgfkjytyjt	Yes	149

10 of 19 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

This market will resolve according to the score the next Claude Opus 4.8 model added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) has at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the leaderboard. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the relevant score falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket. Any Claude model newly added to the leaderboard and labeled as "Opus 4.8" may qualify (e.g., claude-opus-4.8, claude-opus-4.8-thinking, claude-opus-4.8-preview, or similar). Claude models labeled only as Sonnet, Haiku, or another non-Opus 4.8 variant will not qualify. Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market. This market will resolve solely based on the specified score in the Score column of the leaderboard, regardless of any underlying granular or unrounded data presented elsewhere. If multiple qualifying models are added to the leaderboard on the same calendar date (ET), the highest-scoring model will be used for resolution. Models added to the leaderboard on the calendar date following the initial qualifying model’s first appearance will not be considered. A qualifying model must be newly added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard. Whether the model was previously released, publicly accessible, in beta, or otherwise available before appearing on the leaderboard is irrelevant for this market. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which the qualifying model first appears on the leaderboard, this market will resolve based on the first subsequent instance at which such a score becomes available on the leaderboard. If it remains unavailable through the end of the seventh day after the qualifying model first appears on the leaderboard or if no qualifying model release occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.