Analytics
Yes is at 86.6%, up 3.1 points from 83.5% when the market opened on 17 May 2026.
Across the 161 daily closes on record from 17 May 2026 to 30 Oct 2026 (6 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 97.8% on 29 May 2026 and the lowest 68.4% on 13 Jun 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 87%; a month before, 89.5%. Its largest one-day move was 17 points down, to 68.4% on 13 Jun 2026.
Morena is the favourite of the 6 outcomes in “Mexico Legislative Election Winner”, ahead of PAN at 5.1%.
$57.61 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $58.31K since listing. The order book holds $29.96K, with a 5.1% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 500 trades, $9.75K bought Yes and $939.57 bought No; the largest was a $2.13K sell of Yes at 79.3¢.
The largest Yes position is Crimson Scout DF5C with 5.1K shares; the largest No position is Indigo Signal 2966 with 3.8K. Ten wallets hold 78.1% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 7 Jun 2027.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 30, 11:41 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 161 points, 17 May 2026 – 30 Oct 2026, chart shows 60%–100%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 17 May 2026 | 83.5% |
| 30 Oct 2026 | 86.6% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Crimson Scout DF5C | Yes | 5.08K |
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 3.79K |
| Emerald Oracle 69BA | No | 3.24K |
A legislative election is scheduled to be held in Mexico on June 6, 2027. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Mexican Chamber of Deputies (Cámara de Diputados) as a result of this election. If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes in this election. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Mexican Chamber of Deputies. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Mexican Government, specifically the National Electoral Institute (https://ine.mx/).
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/mexico-legislative-election-winner
| archaic | Yes | 1.24K |
| Rr55 | Yes | 627.97 |
| cowcat | No | 460 |
| Apprehensive-Spectrum | No | 455.99 |
| ffranco11 | Yes | 448.24 |
| Haradwaith | Yes | 430.05 |
| qqqmmmccc | Yes | 389.65 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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