Will the median home value in the US be less than $410,000 by February 1?

Resolved

No, settled Feb 1, 2026 UTC

Yes

0.0%

100.0%

Final Yes 0¢Final No 100¢

Lifetime volume

$17.3K

Resolved

Settled

Feb 1, 2026 UTC

Topic roomUS Economy

Where it stands

Resolved No on 1 Feb 2026.

The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.8%. Yes opened at 10% on 6 Jan 2026. Before it settled, across the 27 daily closes on record from 6 Jan 2026 to 1 Feb 2026, the highest close was 10% on 6 Jan 2026 and the lowest 0.1% on 30 Jan 2026. Its largest one-day move was 6.6 points down, to 3.4% on 11 Jan 2026. $17.34K traded over the market's life.

30 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Feb 2, 4:23 PM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 27 points, 6 Jan 2026 – 1 Feb 2026, chart shows 0%–15%

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
6 Jan 2026	10.0%
1 Feb 2026	0.2%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
Indigo Signal 2966	No	6.51K
dokan	Yes	1K
TENETENET	Yes	500

10 of 30 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in the United States on February 1, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the United States (Parcl_ID: 5826765). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 2000, which is the median square footage for homes in the US. Parcl is set to publish this data on February 1, 2026. If no data for February 1 is released by February 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/6)