Will the median home value in the US be between $433,000 and $435,000 on April 30?

Resolved

Yes, settled Apr 30, 2026 UTC

Yes

100.0%

0.0%

Final Yes 100¢Final No 0¢

Lifetime volume

$1.4K

Resolved

Yes

Settled

Apr 30, 2026 UTC

Topic roomUS Economy

Where it stands

Resolved Yes on 30 Apr 2026.

The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 86%. Yes opened at 50% on 31 Mar 2026. Before it settled, across the 15 daily closes on record from 31 Mar 2026 to 30 Apr 2026 (16 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 86% on 30 Apr 2026 and the lowest 17.5% on 2 Apr 2026. Its largest one-day move was 27 points down, to 17.5% on 2 Apr 2026. $1.36K traded over the market's life.

10 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of May 1, 12:16 PM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 15 points, 31 Mar 2026 – 30 Apr 2026

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
31 Mar 2026	50.0%
30 Apr 2026	86.0%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
Indigo Signal 2966	No	555.51
Neon Lynx 895D	No	418.56
wataxut	No	38.62

10 of 10 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in the United States on April 30, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the United States (Parcl_ID: 5826765). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 2000, which is the median square footage for homes in the US. Parcl is set to publish this data on April 30, 2026. If no data for April 30 is released by May 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/24)