Analytics
Resolved Yes on 5 Jul 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 50%. Yes opened at 50% on 1 Jul 2026. Before it settled, across the 5 daily closes on record from 1 Jul 2026 to 5 Jul 2026, the highest close was 50% on 1 Jul 2026 and the lowest 26% on 4 Jul 2026. Its largest one-day move was 24 points up, to 50% on 5 Jul 2026. $5.6K traded over the market's life.
9 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jul 6, 3:33 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 5 points, 1 Jul 2026 – 5 Jul 2026, chart shows 20%–60%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2026 | 50.0% |
| 5 Jul 2026 | 50.0% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Rotemshaf | No | 1.75K |
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 142 |
| 09F911029D74 | No | 66 |
| .Menthe | No | 50 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve in favor of the bracket that matches the margin of victory between the winner and 2nd place at the conclusion of the Men’s 2026 Nathan’s Famous Hot Dog Contest. If the Men’s 2026 Nathan’s Famous Hot Dog Contest is cancelled, postponed, or the margin of victory cannot be determined as equaling or exceeding the listed number by August 9, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. The primary resolution source will be the official information from the MLE; however, a consensus of credible sources may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/nathans-famous-hot-dog-eating-contest-margin-of-victory-20260629215835381
New to prediction markets?
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| 1f2da719e0b226d9d91664b0cfe0659 | No | 5.01 |
