Analytics
Yes is at 8.5%, down 6 points from 14.5% when the market opened on 23 Sep 2026.
Across the 35 daily closes on record from 23 Sep 2026 to 30 Oct 2026 (3 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 39.1% on 19 Oct 2026 and the lowest 2.4% on 9 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 33.1%; a month before, 17.5%. Its largest one-day move was 22 points up, to 39.1% on 19 Oct 2026.
-3.00 to -1.01 ft ranks fourth of the 5 outcomes in “Lowest Mississippi level at St. Louis by November 30?”. 1.00 to 2.99 ft leads at 43%; -1.00 to 0.99 ft is at 23.5%.
$751.2 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $19.6K since listing. The order book holds $1.34K, with a 16.2% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 355 trades, $1.7K bought Yes and $3.99K bought No.
The largest Yes position is 2B9S with 528 shares; the largest No position is Indigo Signal 2966 with 3K. Ten wallets hold 79.9% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 2 Dec 2026, 33 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 30, 11:19 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 35 points, 23 Sep 2026 – 30 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 23 Sep 2026 | 14.5% |
| 30 Oct 2026 | 8.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 3.04K |
| Started-with-20-USD | No | 735.42 |
| 2B9S | Yes | 528.12 |
This market will resolve according to the lowest gage height (river level), in feet, recorded at the Mississippi River at St. Louis, MO streamgage (USGS site 07010000) between market creation and November 30, 2026, as published by the United States Geological Survey (USGS) for parameter code 00065 under statistic code 30800. Exactly one outcome in this market will resolve to "Yes". The lowest daily reading in the window decides this market; the level does not need to be sustained. If USGS does not publish a reading for one or more days, this market will resolve according to the lowest reading among the days that are published. Values will be used exactly as published by USGS, without rounding. USGS reports gage height at this gage to 2 decimal places. Each range includes both of its stated bounds and consecutive ranges are contiguous, so every reading falls in exactly one range: a lowest reading of exactly -1.00 ft resolves the range beginning at -1.00 ft to "Yes" and every other range to "No". This market will resolve on the values published at the time of resolution, whether flagged provisional ("P") or approved ("A"); revisions published afterward will not be considered, except where the correction provision below applies. If any data remains unpublished or unfinalized, this market will remain open for up to 2 calendar days (ET) after November 30, 2026; it will then resolve based on the finalized data published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after such data is first released to allow for corrections; this applies only to clerical or similar errors, not to USGS differing from other sources. If the source is unavailable, this market may be extended to December 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. If no data for the window is available by then, this market will resolve to "Below -3.00 ft". The primary resolution source for this market will be the USGS Daily Values service for site 07010000; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. The service is available here: https://waterservices.usgs.gov/nwis/dv/?sites=07010000¶meterCd=00065&statCd=30800&startDT=2026-09-21&endDT=2026-11-30&format=rdb
| xtxpleasecallme | Yes | 427.06 |
| haouibao | Yes | 335 |
| Fair-Tan | Yes | 333.88 |
| JsonStatham | Yes | 267.25 |
| Reckless-Estrogen-Competence | Yes | 240.69 |
| tradetosurvive1 | Yes | 204.51 |
| Hugin-og-Munin | Yes | 170 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/lowest-mississippi-level-at-st-louis-by-november-30
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