Analytics
Yes is at 32%, up 31 points from 1.5% when the market opened on 23 Sep 2026.
Across the 34 daily closes on record from 23 Sep 2026 to 29 Oct 2026 (3 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 60% on 16 Oct 2026 and the lowest 1.5% on 23 Sep 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 35.1%; a month before, 3.9%. Its largest one-day move was 23 points down, to 35.1% on 21 Oct 2026.
6.00 ft or more ranks second of the 5 outcomes in “Lowest Mississippi level at Baton Rouge by November 30?”. 5.00 to 5.99 ft leads at 39%; 4.00 to 4.99 ft is at 25.3%.
$180.41 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $15.32K since listing. The order book holds $4.42K, with a 5.1% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 206 trades, $2.55K bought Yes and $2.64K bought No.
The largest Yes position is dpnd with 1.8K shares; the largest No position is Indigo Signal 2966 with 1.4K. Ten wallets hold 88.5% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 2 Dec 2026, 35 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 29, 12:58 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 34 points, 23 Sep 2026 – 29 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 23 Sep 2026 | 1.5% |
| 29 Oct 2026 | 32.0% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| dpnd | Yes | 1.81K |
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 1.39K |
| Started-with-20-USD | No | 395.47 |
This market will resolve according to the lowest daily mean gage height (river level), in feet, recorded at the Mississippi River at Baton Rouge, LA streamgage (USGS site 07374000) between market creation and November 30, 2026, as published by the United States Geological Survey (USGS) for parameter code 00065 under statistic code 00003 (daily mean). The lowest daily reading in the window decides this market; the level does not need to be sustained. If USGS does not publish a reading for one or more days, this market will resolve according to the lowest reading among the days that are published. USGS reports gage height to 2 decimal places, and this is the precision used to resolve this market. Each range includes both of its stated bounds and consecutive ranges are contiguous, so every reading falls in exactly one range: a lowest reading of exactly 4.00 ft resolves the range beginning at 4.00 ft to "Yes" and every other range to "No". The resolution source is the USGS Daily Values service for site 07374000, available here: https://waterservices.usgs.gov/nwis/dv/?sites=07374000¶meterCd=00065&statCd=00003&startDT=2026-09-21&endDT=2026-11-30&format=rdb This market will resolve on the values published at the time of resolution, whether flagged provisional ("P") or approved ("A"); revisions published afterward will not be considered. If the source is unavailable, this market may be extended to December 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. If no data for the window is available by then, this market will resolve to "Below 3.00 ft".
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/lowest-mississippi-level-at-baton-rouge-by-november-30
| Haradwaith | No | 228.61 |
| Fair-Tan | Yes | 224.1 |
| Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed | No | 220.8 |
| Dr.PNL | No | 176.39 |
| youtube-trader | Yes | 134.72 |
| xtxpleasecallme | Yes | 119.12 |
| Neon Atlas F332 | Yes | 80.57 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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