Analytics
Yes is at 6.5%, down 5 points from 11.5% when the market opened on 19 Aug 2026.
Across the 69 daily closes on record from 19 Aug 2026 to 28 Oct 2026 (3 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 13.5% on 6 Sep 2026 and the lowest 6% on 24 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 6.5%; a month before, 10.5%.
8.0 – 8.1 ranks third of the 7 outcomes in “Highest earthquake magnitude in 2026?”. 7.9 or below leads at 79%; 8.2 – 8.3 is at 6.9%.
$2.38K traded in the last 24 hours. The order book holds $371.48, with a 5.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 62 trades, $70.62 bought Yes and $611.97 bought No.
The largest Yes position is Ruiziness with 198 shares; the largest No position is Indigo Signal 2966 with 482.
Trading closes on 7 Jan 2027, 71 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 28, 10:40 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 69 points, 19 Aug 2026 – 28 Oct 2026, chart shows 0%–20%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 19 Aug 2026 | 11.5% |
| 28 Oct 2026 | 6.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 482.48 |
| Ruiziness | Yes | 197.85 |
| 2B9S | Yes | 168.11 |
This market will resolve based on the USGS preferred magnitude of the largest (highest-magnitude) earthquake to occur anywhere on Earth between January 1, 2026, 12:00:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET. The "7.9 or below" bracket covers any case in which the highest-magnitude earthquake during this market's timeframe is below 8.0, including the magnitude 7.8 already recorded in 2026 and any lower value. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/). Magnitude is measured to one decimal place (e.g., 7.9). The USGS preferred magnitude at the end of this market's open period governs; later revisions do not reopen or change this market's resolution. An extension period extends this market's close from January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET to as late as January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, and applies when a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but the USGS has not yet published or finalized its preferred magnitude. This additional time allows the reported magnitude to be finalized before this market resolves. This market will remain open until January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, or until January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET if the extension period applies. If a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but has not yet appeared on the resolution source by the end of that period, another credible resolution source will be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/highest-earthquake-magnitude-in-2026
| KiruaTrading |
| No |
| 165.07 |
| xtxpleasecallme | Yes | 140.61 |
| Numitus1994 | Yes | 70.78 |
| crossFiter | Yes | 25 |
| Comfortable-Survivor-Attenuation | Yes | 20 |
| Sweltering-Passion-Fragrance | Yes | 15 |
| dsfd3 | Yes | 10 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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