
Resolved No on 3 Feb 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 62.5%. Yes opened at 23% on 31 Jan 2026. Before it settled, the high was 37.5% on 2 Feb 2026 and the low 23% on 31 Jan 2026. Its largest one-day move was 12 points up, to 35.5% on 1 Feb 2026. $6.26M traded over the market's life.
530 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Feb 5, 12:25 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 4 points, 31 Jan 2026 – 3 Feb 2026, chart shows 20%–45%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 31 Jan 2026 | 23.0% |
| 3 Feb 2026 | 37.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| ImJustKenVerifiedVerified Polymarket profile | Yes | 344.32K |
| povyii8 | Yes | 179.91K |
| moon-k58-lad | Yes | 100K |
| PCMTest | Yes | 50K |
| 20Nick00 | Yes | 45K |
| Blind Chicken | Yes | 41.09K |
| estrume | Yes | 32.39K |
| databets1 | Yes | 32K |
| Initialc | Yes | 25.54K |
| JeremyWade | Yes | 20.16K |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the government is shut down for the listed number of days, inclusive of the beginning and ending dates. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying government shutdown will be defined as having begun when the Office of Personnel Management (OPM) announces that the U.S. federal government is shut down due to a lapse in appropriations. The end date of the shut down will be determined by the date on which the funding bill required to reopen the government is signed by the President or otherwise enacted. The announcement of an impending reopen will not qualify. Partial shutdowns count as shutdowns; announcements of office closures due to holidays or inclement weather do not qualify as a shutdown. If no qualifying shutdown begins by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be OPM’s Operating Status page (https://www.opm.gov/policy-data-oversight/snow-dismissal-procedures/current-status/), information from official U.S. Government sources, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/how-long-will-the-next-government-shutdown-last
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