Will the government shutdown last 4 days or more?

Resolved

Yes, settled Feb 3, 2026 UTC

Yes

100.0%

0.0%

Final Yes 100¢Final No 0¢

Lifetime volume

$4.4M

Resolved

Yes

Settled

Feb 3, 2026 UTC

Where it stands

Resolved Yes on 3 Feb 2026.

The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 99.4%. Yes opened at 33.5% on 31 Jan 2026. Before it settled, across the 4 daily closes on record from 31 Jan 2026 to 3 Feb 2026, the highest close was 99.4% on 3 Feb 2026 and the lowest 33.5% on 31 Jan 2026. Its largest one-day move was 56 points up, to 89.5% on 1 Feb 2026. $4.39M traded over the market's life.

490 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Feb 4, 8:23 AM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 4 points, 31 Jan 2026 – 3 Feb 2026

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
ImJustKenVerifiedVerified Polymarket profile	No	244.77K
tetrose	No	174.87K
TheEditor	No	119.66K
tradingl

10 of 490 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the government is shut down for the listed number of days, inclusive of the beginning and ending dates. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying government shutdown will be defined as having begun when the Office of Personnel Management (OPM) announces that the U.S. federal government is shut down due to a lapse in appropriations. The end date of the shut down will be determined by the date on which the funding bill required to reopen the government is signed by the President or otherwise enacted. The announcement of an impending reopen will not qualify. Partial shutdowns count as shutdowns; announcements of office closures due to holidays or inclement weather do not qualify as a shutdown. If no qualifying shutdown begins by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be OPM’s Operating Status page (https://www.opm.gov/policy-data-oversight/snow-dismissal-procedures/current-status/), information from official U.S. Government sources, and a consensus of credible reporting.