Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after its March 2024 meeting?

Resolved

No, settled Mar 20, 2024 UTC

Yes

0.0%

100.0%

Final Yes 0¢Final No 100¢

Lifetime volume

$13.3K

Resolved

Settled

Mar 20, 2024 UTC

Where it stands

Resolved No on 20 Mar 2024.

The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.9%. Yes opened at 48.5% on 1 Feb 2024. Before it settled, across the 49 daily closes on record from 1 Feb 2024 to 20 Mar 2024, the highest close was 48.5% on 1 Feb 2024 and the lowest 0.1% on 10 Mar 2024. Its largest one-day move was 46 points down, to 2.5% on 2 Feb 2024. $13.32K traded over the market's life.

3 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of May 7, 11:10 PM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 49 points, 1 Feb 2024 – 20 Mar 2024

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
1 Feb 2024	48.5%
20 Mar 2024	0.1%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
Indigo Signal 2966	No	15.22K
Danone1	Yes	40
undertaker	No	0.04

3 of 3 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

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