Analytics
“Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Oct–Dec–Jan)?” is a prediction market on Polymarket with two tradeable outcomes, Yes and No. It belongs to the event “Fed decisions (Oct-Jan)”. The Yes price is the crowd's implied probability that the question resolves Yes; every trade on the public order book moves it.
The venue reports this market as closed. Its scheduled close is Jan 31, 2026. No resolved outcome is inferred from a closed or suspended state.
Vultax observes this market from Polymarket's public order book and data API and keeps its own record: 121 hourly price points from Oct 1, 2025 to Jan 28, 2026 (Yes between 0.1% and 49.5%); 65 loaded holder wallets, the largest ten holding 94.3% of the loaded shares; 500 recent public fills from 60 wallets. Each figure carries its observation time; nothing here is a return forecast.
Public Polymarket market/event context is available; Vultax source-pack coverage is tracked separately.
This resolved market has no live orderbook depth; the public close quote is shown for context.
Nine stops, one per figure on this page. Each stop says what the number is, why it matters, and what it reads right now for this market.
Each outcome trades as a share that pays $1 if it wins and nothing if it loses. Prices are quoted in cents, and Yes plus No add up to about one dollar.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: October 28–29, 2025; December 9–10, 2025; and January 27–28, 2026. A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered. Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other". The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm If no statement is released for the January 2026 meeting by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-the-fed-decide-differently-in-the-next-three-decisions-octdecjan
The Yes price read as a chance. A share at 21.5¢ means the crowd gives Yes about a 21.5% chance right now. It moves with every trade, so it is a live forecast, not a verdict.
Dollar value of shares that changed hands in the last 24 hours. High volume means the price is being tested by real money; low volume means a few trades can move it.
Dollars resting in the order book, waiting to be traded against. Deep liquidity lets a large order fill near the quoted price; thin liquidity means the price jumps when someone trades size.
The gap between the best bid and the best ask. A tight spread makes entry and exit cheap; a wide spread is a cost paid on every round trip.
The wallets holding the most shares on each side, and how much of the loaded sample the largest ten control. Concentration shows whether a market is a crowd or a handful of large positions.
The public fills, newest first: which wallet bought or sold which outcome, at what price, and when. It is the market's own diary, and every wallet on it links to a trader profile.
Hourly closes of the Yes price. The range shows how sure or split the crowd has been; the move shows which way it has been changing its mind.
Trading stops at the close time. The outcome is then settled by the resolution source named in the rules. A closed market is not resolved until the venue reports it, so the two states are shown separately.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 83.9K |
| julius83423 | Yes | 4.17K |
| Old-Fashioned-Bonding | Yes | 4.15K |
| Madhava | Yes | 2.77K |
| Cobalt Harbor 98E6 | Yes | 1.82K |
| wokerjoesleeper | Yes | 1.21K |
| Saracens7 | Yes | 1K |
| Timson187 | Yes | 1K |
| AduNasib | Yes | 1K |
| Telluride | Yes | 973.89 |