Will the Fed Pause–Cut–Cut in the next three decisions (Oct–Dec–Jan)?

Resolved

No, settled Oct 29, 2025 UTC

Yes

0.0%

100.0%

Final Yes 0¢Final No 100¢

Lifetime volume

$32.3K

Resolved

Settled

Oct 29, 2025 UTC

Where it stands

Resolved No on 29 Oct 2025.

The last daily price before settlement had No at 97.9%. Yes opened at 49.5% on 1 Oct 2025. Before it settled, across the 29 daily closes on record from 1 Oct 2025 to 29 Oct 2025, the highest close was 49.5% on 1 Oct 2025 and the lowest 0.1% on 24 Oct 2025. Its largest one-day move was 46 points down, to 3.5% on 2 Oct 2025. $32.35K traded over the market's life.

41 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Jan 16, 7:36 PM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 29 points, 1 Oct 2025 – 29 Oct 2025

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
1 Oct 2025	49.5%
29 Oct 2025	2.1%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
Indigo Signal 2966	No	83.9K
paspor	Yes	6.56K
Novus0rdoSeclorum	Yes	4.69K
Bright Horizon 81D6	Yes	3.77K

10 of 41 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: October 28–29, 2025; December 9–10, 2025; and January 27–28, 2026. A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered. Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other". The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm If no statement is released for the January 2026 meeting by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".