Analytics
Resolved No on 29 Apr 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.7%. Yes opened at 13% on 26 Mar 2026. Before it settled, across the 14 daily closes on record from 26 Mar 2026 to 29 Apr 2026 (21 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 13% on 26 Mar 2026 and the lowest 0.3% on 22 Apr 2026. Its largest one-day move was 7.5 points down, to 5.5% on 27 Mar 2026. $8.25K traded over the market's life.
39 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Apr 30, 6:15 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 14 points, 26 Mar 2026 – 29 Apr 2026, chart shows 0%–20%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 26 Mar 2026 | 13.0% |
| 29 Apr 2026 | 0.4% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 28.64K |
| Novus0rdoSeclorum | Yes | 3.46K |
| yangguang0511 | Yes | 2K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29. A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other". Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered. The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/fed-decisions-apr-jul
| Yes |
| 989.46 |
| balthazar | Yes | 876.86 |
| graynotebook19 | Yes | 546.89 |
| godblessme2026 | Yes | 514.86 |
| mildwindow27 | Yes | 505.39 |
| plainfolder | Yes | 443.28 |
| cash-machine | Yes | 414.73 |
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
