Analytics
Resolved No on 30 Apr 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.8%. Yes opened at 7% on 14 Dec 2024. Before it settled, across the 138 daily closes on record from 14 Dec 2024 to 30 Apr 2025, the highest close was 10.5% on 17 Dec 2024 and the lowest 0.1% on 29 Apr 2025. $43.65K traded over the market's life.
17 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of May 1, 12:23 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 138 points, 14 Dec 2024 – 30 Apr 2025, chart shows 0%–15%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 14 Dec 2024 | 7.0% |
| 30 Apr 2025 | 0.2% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Azure Lynx AE43 | Yes | 224.44 |
| wahoowa | No | 40 |
| bQ2sCdWkm6PuaczVq1 | Yes | 10 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) withdraws or suspends its approval from any polio vaccine currently on the market between December 12, 2024, and April 29, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If FDA approval is withdrawn or suspended for any specific population group (e.g. infants, toddlers, children), it will count toward a "Yes" resolution. For the purposes of this market an announcement by the FDA that it will withdraw or suspend its approval will count toward a "Yes" resolution, regardless of when it goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the FDA and the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-the-fda-revoke-polio-vaccine-in-trump-first-100-days
| Yes |
| 10 |
| k8en | Yes | 10 |
| eanlak | No | 1.86 |
| EricBKK | No | 1.09 |
| maximmadjara | Yes | 0.3 |
| bethy | Yes | 0.22 |
| ArmageddonRewardsBilly | No | 0.03 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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