Analytics
Resolved No on 11 Jun 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.6%. Yes opened at 51% on 20 Mar 2026. Before it settled, across the 63 daily closes on record from 20 Mar 2026 to 11 Jun 2026 (21 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 61.5% on 22 Apr 2026 and the lowest 0.4% on 11 Jun 2026. Its largest one-day move was 30 points down, to 14.5% on 29 Apr 2026. $249.36K traded over the market's life.
183 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jun 12, 12:39 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 63 points, 20 Mar 2026 – 11 Jun 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 20 Mar 2026 | 51.0% |
| 11 Jun 2026 | 0.4% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 114.27K |
| Guguess | Yes | 14.38K |
| gothamrun | Yes | 12.79K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting. If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution. The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar: https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page: https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting. If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/ecb-interest-rates-june-2026
| Yes |
| 10.98K |
| niko1020 | Yes | 9.09K |
| Poor-Gate | Yes | 6.67K |
| nachtkind2k | Yes | 5.77K |
| Intelligent-Hero | Yes | 5.32K |
| Quizzical-Snowplow | Yes | 5.15K |
| Opulent-Enforcement | Yes | 4.95K |
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