Question 1

What is the “Will the ECB announce a 25 bps decrease at the December 2026 meeting?” market asking?

Accepted Answer

It asks whether the following will happen: Will the ECB announce a 25 bps decrease at the December 2026 meeting? It is one of the markets in the Polymarket event “ECB Interest Rates: December 2026”. Traders buy Yes shares if they think it will and No shares if they think it will not.

Question 2

What do the Yes and No prices mean?

Accepted Answer

Right now Yes trades at 8.9¢ and No at 91.0¢. A Yes share pays $1 if the market resolves Yes, so its price is the market's implied probability: 8.9% for Yes and 91.0% for No. The two prices add up to about one dollar.

Question 3

When does this market close?

Accepted Answer

Trading is scheduled to close on Dec 17, 2026. After the close no new trades are accepted and the outcome is settled by the resolution source.

Question 4

How does this market resolve?

Accepted Answer

This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the deposit facility rate resulting from the December 2026 meeting of the European Central Bank, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source will be official information from the European Central Bank, including the statement or release from its December 2026 meeting, scheduled for December 16-17, 2026, as listed on the official European Central Bank calendar (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the…

Question 5

What is the difference between volume, liquidity and open interest?

Accepted Answer

24h volume ($1.08K) is the dollar value of shares traded in the last 24 hours; liquidity ($1.55K) is the dollar value resting in the order book. Volume measures activity, liquidity measures how easily you can trade, and open interest measures how much is at stake.

Question 6

Who holds the biggest positions in this market?

Accepted Answer

Vultax loaded 9 public holder wallets for this market; the largest ten hold 100.0% of the loaded shares. The Holders view lists them by size on each side, and every wallet links to its trader profile.

Question 7

Where does this data come from and how fresh is it?

Accepted Answer

Prices, the order book, holders and the trade tape come from Polymarket's public order book and data API. Vultax records each observation with its own timestamp (market facts last updated Sep 15, 8:12 PM) and shows a value as unavailable rather than as zero when a source has not answered.

Question 8

Can I trade this market on Vultax?

Accepted Answer

No. Vultax is a research and paper-trading terminal; it does not execute orders. The trade controls open the official market on Polymarket (https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-ecb-announce-a-25-bps-decrease-at-the-december-2026-meeting) or the Vultax predictions monitor, where you can track the market and paper trade it.

Trader	Outcome	Shares	Avg entry	Cost basis	Last trade
Indigo Signal 2966	No	1.12K	0.0%	$0
Speedy-Automation	Yes	900.21	2.0%	$900.21

Trader	Current holding value
Indigo Signal 2966	$1.02K
Speedy-Automation	$80.57
cigarettes	$18.21
LesterDiamond	$4.58
a5533	$4.48
youtube-trader	$4.12
mustbethewater	$3.58
VonVonagh	$3.49
AJSV	$1.58

Will the ECB announce a 25 bps decrease at the December 2026 meeting?

ECB Interest Rates: December 2026

Questions about this market