Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs?

On May 28, 2025, the U.S. Court of International Trade ruled that Donald Trump exceeded his authority under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) by imposing a series of broad tariffs. The ruling blocked several major measures, including the “Liberation Day” tariffs—a 10% tariff on all imports and country-specific rates of up to 50%—as well as additional tariffs targeting Canadian, Mexican, and Chinese goods. The Trump administration has filed a single consolidated appeal of this decision, titled V.O.S. Selections, Inc. v. United States, currently pending before the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit. This market will resolve to “Yes” if, by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, both of the following occur: 1. The Trump administration’s appeal in V.O.S. Selections, Inc. v. United States is denied, in whole or in part 2. U.S. importers receive refunds for at least some of the tariffs invalidated by the May 28, 2025 ruling. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Announcements, court orders, or plans to issue refunds will not be sufficient for resolution unless actual refunds are issued within the market timeframe. If the appeal is fully upheld and no refunds are issued, this market will resolve to “No”. The primary resolution source will be official government or court information, or a consensus of credible reporting.

Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-the-court-force-trump-to-refund-tariffs