Analytics
Resolved No on 28 Oct 2024.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.9%. Yes opened at 2.4% on 25 Oct 2024. Before it settled, across the 4 daily closes on record from 25 Oct 2024 to 28 Oct 2024, the highest close was 2.4% on 25 Oct 2024 and the lowest 0.1% on 28 Oct 2024. $30.61K traded over the market's life.
3 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Oct 28, 9:27 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 4 points, 25 Oct 2024 – 28 Oct 2024, chart shows 0%–10%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 25 Oct 2024 | 2.4% |
| 28 Oct 2024 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 4.42K |
| freedom1 | Yes | 67.74 |
| viviviiviv31 | No | 0.01 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
Early general elections are scheduled to be held in Japan on 27 October 2024. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Constitutional Democratic Party (立憲民主党, Rikken-minshutō) controls a greater number of seats in the House of Representatives of the National Diet of Japan than any other party after the results of the 2024 Japanese general election are finalized. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the results of this election aren't known by December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". In the case of a tie between this party and any other for the most seats controlled, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order using the English translation version of party names. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the listed party, not any coalition or alliance of which it may be a part. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Japanese government, specifically the Central Election Management Council. However, a consensus of credible media reports will also suffice to resolve this market.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/which-party-will-win-the-most-seats-in-japanese-general-election
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