Analytics
Resolved No on 30 Apr 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.8%. Yes opened at 89% on 7 Jan 2025. Before it settled, across the 114 daily closes on record from 7 Jan 2025 to 30 Apr 2025, the highest close was 89% on 7 Jan 2025 and the lowest 0.3% on 30 Apr 2025. Its largest one-day move was 9.5 points down, to 42.5% on 27 Feb 2025. $7.32M traded over the market's life.
351 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of May 1, 8:20 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 114 points, 7 Jan 2025 – 30 Apr 2025
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 7 Jan 2025 | 89.0% |
| 30 Apr 2025 | 0.3% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| DGunz | Yes | 230.63K |
| FrozenRipper | Yes | 122.12K |
| roninfellows | Yes | 102.7K |
The next Canadian general election will take place on or before October 20, 2025, to elect members of the House of Commons to the 45th Canadian Parliament. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Conservative Party of Canada wins a majority of seats (170 or more) in the House of Commons as a result of the next Canadian general election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the results of this election aren't known by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by this party, not any coalition or alliance of which it may be a part. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Canadian government, specifically Elections Canada (https://www.elections.ca/home.aspx).
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-the-conservative-party-win-a-majority-in-next-canadian-election
| Yes |
| 96.12K |
| spacecowboy24 | Yes | 70.82K |
| Jovial-Expectancy | Yes | 70.12K |
| Robin13 | Yes | 48.31K |
| Misty Signal 7C25 | Yes | 45.44K |
| Chahal1264 | Yes | 44.86K |
| qwrt | Yes | 41.01K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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