Question 1

What is the “Will the CDU/CSU win by less than 2%?” market asking?

Accepted Answer

It asks whether the following will happen: Will the CDU/CSU win by less than 2%? It is one of the markets in the Polymarket event “CDU/CSU margin of victory?”. Traders buy Yes shares if they think it will and No shares if they think it will not.

Question 2

What do the Yes and No prices mean?

Accepted Answer

At the last observation Yes traded at 0.0¢ and No at 100.0¢. A Yes share pays $1 if the market resolves Yes, so its price is the market's implied probability: 0.0% for Yes and 100.0% for No. The two prices add up to about one dollar.

Question 3

When does this market close?

Accepted Answer

Trading is scheduled to close on Feb 23, 2025 UTC. After the close no new trades are accepted and the outcome is settled by the resolution source.

Question 4

How does this market resolve?

Accepted Answer

This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the CDU/CSU (CDU/CSU-Fraktion im Deutschen Bundestag) compared with the second place party. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of resolving this market, the 'margin of victory' is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of party list votes received by CDU/CSU and the second-place party. Percentages of the votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all votes cast in the 2025 German…

Question 5

What is the difference between volume, liquidity and open interest?

Accepted Answer

24h volume ($271.33K) is the dollar value of shares traded in the last 24 hours. Volume measures activity, liquidity measures how easily you can trade, and open interest measures how much is at stake.

Question 6

Who holds the biggest positions in this market?

Accepted Answer

Vultax loaded 5 public holder wallets for this market; the largest ten hold 100.0% of the loaded shares. The Holders view lists them by size on each side, and every wallet links to its trader profile.

Question 7

Where does this data come from and how fresh is it?

Accepted Answer

Prices, the order book, holders and the trade tape come from Polymarket's public order book and data API. Vultax records each observation with its own timestamp (market facts last updated Mar 15, 12:29 PM UTC) and shows a value as unavailable rather than as zero when a source has not answered.

Question 8

Can I trade this market on Vultax?

Accepted Answer

No. Vultax is a research and paper-trading terminal; it does not execute orders. The trade controls open the official market on Polymarket (https://polymarket.com/event/cducsu-margin-of-victory) or the Vultax predictions monitor, where you can track the market and paper trade it.

Bucket	Close	Mid
Mar 14, 12:00 AM UTC	0.1%	0.1%
Mar 13, 12:00 AM UTC	0.1%	0.1%
Mar 12, 12:00 AM UTC	0.1%	0.1%

Will the CDU/CSU win by less than 2%?

CDU/CSU margin of victory?

Questions about this market