Analytics
Resolved No on 14 Mar 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.9%. Yes opened at 10.5% on 15 Feb 2025. Before it settled, across the 28 daily closes on record from 15 Feb 2025 to 14 Mar 2025, the highest close was 10.5% on 15 Feb 2025 and the lowest 0.1% on 26 Feb 2025. Its largest one-day move was 9.3 points down, to 0.2% on 24 Feb 2025. $65.24K traded over the market's life.
14 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Mar 15, 12:35 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 28 points, 15 Feb 2025 – 14 Mar 2025, chart shows 0%–15%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 15 Feb 2025 | 10.5% |
| 14 Mar 2025 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 35.82K |
| TimeTraveler | Yes | 7.99K |
| Sleinjerino | Yes | 1.7K |
| Donaldjmagatrump | Yes | 397.86 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the CDU/CSU (CDU/CSU-Fraktion im Deutschen Bundestag) compared with the second place party. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of resolving this market, the 'margin of victory' is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of party list votes received by CDU/CSU and the second-place party. Percentages of the votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all votes cast in the 2025 German federal election. If the CDU/CSU does not win a plurality of party list votes, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. This market's resolution will be based solely on the proportion of votes won by this party, not any coalition of which it may be a part. The CDU and CSU (often referred to as Union (Unionsparteien)) will be considered a single party, NOT a coalition. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results as reported by the German government, specifically the Federal Returning Officer (Bundeswahlleiter) (https://www.bundeswahlleiterin.de/en/).
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/cducsu-margin-of-victory
| Audiaturetalterapars | Yes | 180 |
| Comebackkid | Yes | 85.69 |
| Tim6f6 | Yes | 29.9 |
| serkem | Yes | 16.13 |
| wetteifer | Yes | 10.1 |
| Educator | Yes | 6.67 |
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