Will the CDU/CSU win 20-25% of the vote in the German election?

Resolved

No, settled Mar 14, 2025 UTC

Yes

0.0%

100.0%

Final Yes 0¢Final No 100¢

Lifetime volume

$487.6K

Resolved

Settled

Mar 14, 2025 UTC

Where it stands

Resolved No on 14 Mar 2025.

The last daily price before settlement had No at 100%. Yes opened at 7.5% on 18 Dec 2024. Before it settled, across the 87 daily closes on record from 18 Dec 2024 to 14 Mar 2025, the highest close was 13.9% on 20 Jan 2025 and the lowest 0.1% on 25 Feb 2025. Its largest one-day move was 6.8 points up, to 13.9% on 20 Jan 2025. $487.63K traded over the market's life.

39 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Mar 15, 2:01 PM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 87 points, 18 Dec 2024 – 14 Mar 2025, chart shows 0%–20%

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
18 Dec 2024	7.5%
14 Mar 2025	0.1%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
Indigo Signal 2966	No	230.6K
ChriRi	Yes	67.27K
Vladimir333	Yes	5.28K

Rules

How this market was settled

German Federal elections to elect the 21st Bundestag are scheduled to take place February 23, 2025. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the CDU/CSU (CDU/CSU-Fraktion im Deutschen Bundestag) wins between 20% (inclusive) and 25% (exclusive) of all party list votes in the next German parliamentary election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market's resolution will be based solely on the proportion of votes won by this party, not any coalition of which it may be a part. For the purpose of this mark The CDU and CSU (often referred to as Union (Unionsparteien)) will be considered a single party, NOT a coalition. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results as reported by the German government, specifically the Federal Returning Officer (Bundeswahlleiter) (https://www.bundeswahlleiterin.de/en/).