Will the Bitcoin Volatility Index hit 45 by August 31?

cryptoResolved

Yes, settled Aug 21, 2026 UTC

Yes

100.0%

0.0%

Final Yes 100¢Final No 0¢

Lifetime volume

$1.6K

Resolved

Yes

Settled

Aug 21, 2026 UTC

Topic roomBitcoin Price

Where it stands

Resolved Yes on 21 Aug 2026.

The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 84%. Yes opened at 69.5% on 2 Aug 2026. Before it settled, across the 20 daily closes on record from 2 Aug 2026 to 21 Aug 2026, the highest close was 84% on 21 Aug 2026 and the lowest 30% on 19 Aug 2026. Its largest one-day move was 29 points up, to 84% on 21 Aug 2026. $1.6K traded over the market's life.

8 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Aug 22, 11:29 AM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 20 points, 2 Aug 2026 – 21 Aug 2026

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
2 Aug 2026	69.5%
21 Aug 2026	84.0%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
Badgery	No	247.89
xxpoz	No	43.15
TENETENET	No	10
bjprolo	No	10

8 of 8 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Volmex 1 minute candle for the Bitcoin Volmex Implied Volatility 30 Day Index (BVIV) between the creation of this market and 23:59 ET on the date specified in the title has a final "High" or "Low" value equal to or beyond (above for ↑ High Prices, below for ↓ Low Prices) the listed value. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Volmex, specifically the Bitcoin Volmex Implied Volatility 30 Day Index "High" and "Low" values available at https://charts.volmex.finance/symbol/BVIV, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the data from the Bitcoin Volmex Implied Volatility 30 Day Index chart. Values from other exchanges or different indexes will not be considered for the resolution of this market.