Analytics
Yes is at 12%, down 32 points from 43.5% when the market opened on 27 Jan 2026.
The high was 69.5% on 9 Feb 2026 and the low 7% on 11 Jul 2026. A week ago Yes was at 12%; a month ago, 14%. Its largest one-day move was 30 points up, to 65.5% on 6 Feb 2026.
$658.2 traded in the last 24 hours. The order book holds $276.5, with a 6.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 35 trades, $45.88 bought Yes and $144.68 bought No.
The largest Yes position is Compa1000 with 45 shares; the largest No position is schneider with 46.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 77 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 16, 4:58 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 242 points, 27 Jan 2026 – 16 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 27 Jan 2026 | 43.5% |
| 16 Oct 2026 | 12.0% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| schneider | No | 46.44 |
| Compa1000 | Yes | 45 |
| aldynspeedruns | No | 40 |
This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Volmex 1 minute candle for the Bitcoin Volmex Implied Volatility 30 Day Index between January 26, 2026, 11:30 and December 31, 2026, 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final "Low" value equal to or lower than the value specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market is Volmex, specifically the Bitcoin Volmex Implied Volatility 30 Day Index "Low" values available at https://charts.volmex.finance/symbol/BVIV, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the data from the Bitcoin Volmex Implied Volatility 30 Day Index chart. Values from other exchanges or different indexes will not be considered for the resolution of this market.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/what-will-the-bitcoin-volatility-index-hit-in-2026
| DegenApe99 |
| Yes |
| 26.5 |
| AJSV | Yes | 21.3 |
| 15rob | No | 5.94 |
| IrthBirth | Yes | 4.81 |
| 48xsds | No | 4.78 |
| xius | Yes | 2.51 |
| Meaty-Sandal | No | 1.81 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
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