Will the Bank of New Zealand increase the official cash rate after the February decision?

Resolved

No, settled Feb 18, 2026 UTC

Yes

0.0%

100.0%

Final Yes 0¢Final No 100¢

Lifetime volume

$106.9K

Resolved

Settled

Feb 18, 2026 UTC

Where it stands

Resolved No on 18 Feb 2026.

The last daily price before settlement had No at 100%. Yes opened at 47.5% on 30 Dec 2025. Before it settled, across the 49 daily closes on record from 30 Dec 2025 to 17 Feb 2026 (1 day in that span have no close), the highest close was 47.5% on 30 Dec 2025 and the lowest 0.1% on 17 Feb 2026. Its largest one-day move was 37 points down, to 10.1% on 31 Dec 2025. $106.85K traded over the market's life.

28 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Feb 19, 8:25 AM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 49 points, 30 Dec 2025 – 17 Feb 2026

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
30 Dec 2025	47.5%
17 Feb 2026	0.1%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
Indigo Signal 2966	No	14.59K
N1NJ4K1W1	Yes	6.15K
Mr-Plenty	Yes	1.45K

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

This market will resolve according to the change in the official cash rate (OCR) resulting from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s February monetary policy decision, relative to the level it was prior to this decision. The resolution source for this market is information released by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand after its February 17, 2026 monetary policy decision, as listed on the official Reserve Bank of New Zealand monetary policy schedule: https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/news-and-events/events#sort=%40eventstart%20ascending&f:@hierarchicalz95xsz120xatopictagnames=[Monetary%20policy] This market may resolve as soon as the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's media release for their February 17, 2026 decision with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the official cash rate is issued by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.