Analytics
Resolved No on 18 Mar 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 100%. Yes opened at 50.5% on 24 Dec 2025. Before it settled, across the 77 daily closes on record from 24 Dec 2025 to 18 Mar 2026 (8 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 50.5% on 24 Dec 2025 and the lowest 0.1% on 18 Mar 2026. Its largest one-day move was 43 points down, to 8% on 25 Dec 2025.
43 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Mar 19, 7:57 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 77 points, 24 Dec 2025 – 18 Mar 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 24 Dec 2025 | 50.5% |
| 18 Mar 2026 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 30.22K |
| Solar Kestrel 669D | Yes | 2.62K |
| Impure-Contour | Yes | 2.18K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the target for the overnight rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Canada's March 2026 meeting. If the target for the overnight rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution. The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Canada after its March 18, 2026 policy meeting, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Canada's statement for their March meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/bank-of-canada-decision-in-march
| Yes |
| 586.26 |
| Neon Vector 2367 | Yes | 303.77 |
| human.bean | Yes | 275.01 |
| cry.eth2 | Yes | 257 |
| wizardsmagic | Yes | 244.83 |
| 0xRocket666 | Yes | 199.99 |
| ANRomaniuk | Yes | 190.91 |
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