Analytics
Yes is at 16.5%, up 9 points from 7.5% when the market opened on 20 Sep 2026.
Across the 32 daily closes on record from 20 Sep 2026 to 23 Oct 2026 (2 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 37% on 6 Oct 2026 and the lowest 4.5% on 21 Sep 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 22%; a month before, 11.5%. Its largest one-day move was 19 points up, to 37% on 6 Oct 2026.
50+ bps decrease ranks third of the 5 outcomes in “Bank of Brazil decision in December?”. 25 bps decrease leads at 58.5%; No Change is at 23.5%.
$83.43 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $7.23K since listing. The order book holds $2.32K, with a 1.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 152 trades, $612.41 bought Yes and $2.68K bought No.
The largest Yes position is bancomaster with 919 shares; the largest No position is z13cc with 2.1K. Ten wallets hold 93.7% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 9 Dec 2026, 47 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 23, 4:02 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 32 points, 20 Sep 2026 – 23 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 20 Sep 2026 | 7.5% |
| 23 Oct 2026 | 16.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| z13cc | No | 2.14K |
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 1.05K |
| bancomaster | Yes | 919.19 |
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the Selic rate resulting from the December 2026 meeting of the Bank of Brazil’s Monetary Policy Committee (COPOM), relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Brazil, including the statement or release from its December 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting, scheduled for December 8-9, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Brazil calendar (https://www.bcb.gov.br/en/about/bcb-calendar?categoria=Monetary%20Policy%20Committee%20(Copom)). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Brazil’s Monetary Policy Committee resulting from its December 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound. If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size. If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/bank-of-brazil-decision-in-december-20260918
| newmasterroshi |
| Yes |
| 795.03 |
| Johnsansculotte | Yes | 597.3 |
| Betoreagan | Yes | 400 |
| Valid-Platter | Yes | 292.88 |
| Fair-Tan | Yes | 121.97 |
| AJSV | No | 112.76 |
| Haradwaith | Yes | 90.67 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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