Will the AQI at the World Cup final be 120 or higher?

Resolved

No, settled Jul 20, 2026 UTC

Yes

0.0%

100.0%

Final Yes 0¢Final No 100¢

Lifetime volume

$2.5K

Resolved

Settled

Jul 20, 2026 UTC

Where it stands

Resolved No on 20 Jul 2026.

The last daily price before settlement had No at 89%. Yes opened at 13% on 18 Jul 2026. Before it settled, across the 3 daily closes on record from 18 Jul 2026 to 20 Jul 2026, the highest close was 19.5% on 19 Jul 2026 and the lowest 11% on 20 Jul 2026. Its largest one-day move was 8.5 points down, to 11% on 20 Jul 2026. $2.46K traded over the market's life.

10 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Jul 21, 8:23 AM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 3 points, 18 Jul 2026 – 20 Jul 2026, chart shows 5%–25%

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
18 Jul 2026	13.0%
20 Jul 2026	11.0%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
zoootic	Yes	314.38
.Menthe	Yes	50
monoclith	Yes	20
4haoh	Yes	20

10 of 10 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

The World Cup Final match between Spain and Argentina is expected to be played at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey, beginning at 3:00PM ET. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the highest PM2.5 Air Quality Index recorded in East Rutherford, New Jersey, between the opening kickoff and the end of gameplay in the World Cup Final, including any potential overtime and penalty kicks that may determine the winner of the World Cup is at least equal or higher than the listed figure. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market's resolution source will be the Current Air Quality figure found at https://www.airnow.gov/?city=East%20Rutherford&state=NJ&country=USA. In the event of uncertainty, this market will resolve based on the hourly figures published for the Union City High School monitor, which can be found here: https://gispub.epa.gov/airnow/?contours=none&monitors=ozonepm&xmin=-8250536.396073639&xmax=-8234197.981277704&ymin=4972953.424285053&ymax=4981084.413168878. In the event that no World Cup Final is held by July 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "No". If the figures or the resolution source are unavailable for the entirety of the game, another credible resolution source will be chosen.