Analytics
Yes is at 18.5%, down 55 points from 74% when the market opened on 2 Oct 2026.
Across the 22 daily closes on record from 2 Oct 2026 to 25 Oct 2026 (3 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 80.5% on 7 Oct 2026 and the lowest 4% on 24 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 19%. Its largest one-day move was 40 points down, to 28% on 16 Oct 2026.
5.11% ranks third of the 9 outcomes in “How high will 5-year Treasury yield go in October?”. 5.14% leads at 38.5%; 5.08% is at 19%.
$78.2 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $3.99K since listing. The order book holds $159.68, with a 11.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 141 trades, $649.58 bought Yes and $970.92 bought No.
The largest Yes position is AJSV with 311 shares; the largest No position is HDGB with 362. Ten wallets hold 80.4% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Nov 2026, 7 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 25, 2:46 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 22 points, 2 Oct 2026 – 25 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 2 Oct 2026 | 74.0% |
| 25 Oct 2026 | 18.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| HDGB | No | 362.04 |
| AJSV | Yes | 311.34 |
| commeowder | No | 125.17 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between October 2, 2026 and October 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for the last business day of October 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for the last business day of October 2026 by November 13, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/how-high-will-5-year-treasury-yield-go-in-october
| grinder1011 |
| Yes |
| 122.25 |
| Dr.PNL | Yes | 103.73 |
| Prickly-Eyrie | No | 100 |
| tradetosurvive1 | No | 96.85 |
| timeistmoney | Yes | 77.98 |
| t4zuwbigfjnrs | No | 77 |
| title1 | Yes | 64.15 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
