Analytics
Resolved Yes on 14 Sep 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 93.5%. Yes opened at 51% on 4 Sep 2026. Before it settled, the high was 93.5% on 14 Sep 2026 and the low 51% on 4 Sep 2026. Its largest one-day move was 22 points up, to 78.5% on 11 Sep 2026. $2.67K traded over the market's life.
10 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Oct 7, 8:03 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB · 11 points · 4 Sep 2026 – 14 Sep 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 4 Sep 2026 | 51.0% |
| 14 Sep 2026 | 93.5% |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/how-high-will-5-year-treasury-yield-go-before-2027
| ScottsRoad | No | 50 |
| Kulborg | No | 44.1 |
| gavinfunda | No | 20 |
| GuyFromTinder | No | 11.67 |
| TENETENET | No | 10 |
| bjprolo | No | 8 |
| triklozoid | No | 5 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
