Analytics
Yes is at 57% on Polymarket.
It is one of 13 markets under “How low will 5-year Treasury yield get before 2027?”.
$9.13K traded in the last 24 hours. The order book holds $1.21K, with a 2.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 126 trades, $1.69K bought Yes and $713.35 bought No.
The largest Yes position is Scotsban with 195 shares; the largest No position is ltd.bloom with 398. Ten wallets hold 83.2% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 70 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 23, 2:26 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 1 point, 23 Oct 2026, chart shows 52%–62%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 23 Oct 2026 | 57.0% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| ltd.bloom | No | 398.18 |
| GotGreenWood | No | 329.53 |
| Scotsban | Yes | 194.82 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/how-low-will-5-year-treasury-yield-get-before-2027
1 more market, none above 4.8%.
| mavsgseguritas |
| Yes |
| 159 |
| alamedamemola | Yes | 125 |
| LornaPredicts | No | 93 |
| Scoopdewhoop | Yes | 87 |
| jmonroig | No | 82 |
| tradegod1112123 | Yes | 80.03 |
| virgilia | Yes | 64 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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