Analytics
Resolved No on 27 Feb 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 97.5%. Yes opened at 13.5% on 20 Feb 2026. Before it settled, across the 8 daily closes on record from 20 Feb 2026 to 27 Feb 2026, the highest close was 27% on 26 Feb 2026 and the lowest 2.5% on 27 Feb 2026. Its largest one-day move was 25 points down, to 2.5% on 27 Feb 2026. $6.19K traded over the market's life.
20 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Feb 28, 4:25 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 8 points, 20 Feb 2026 – 27 Feb 2026, chart shows 0%–40%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 20 Feb 2026 | 13.5% |
| 27 Feb 2026 | 2.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 2K |
| Pure-Homeownership | Yes | 499 |
| Separate-Diplomacy | Yes | 218.78 |
| sozialstaat | Yes | 114.57 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve according to the number of viewers (Persons 2+, average total viewers) Nielsen reports the 2026 State of the Union address as having. If this event is cancelled or otherwise does not occur by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. If the reported number of viewers falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source will be information from Nielsen, specifically their Persons 2+ statistic. A consensus of credible reporting on Nielsen's Persons 2+ statistic for the 2026 State of the Union address may also be used. If the 2026 State of the Union address takes place, and Nielsen does not provide viewership information for the broadcast of the address within 10 calendar days, another credible resolution for the 2026 State of the Union viewership source may be chosen.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/how-many-viewers-will-the-2026-state-of-the-union-address-have
| bjprolo | Yes | 100 |
| xiaodouzi | Yes | 99.99 |
| t189 | Yes | 50 |
| mustbethewater | Yes | 40 |
| Utter-Downgrade | Yes | 32 |
| Utter-Maggot | Yes | 24.81 |
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