Will the 2025 Guinea referendum pass?

Resolved

Yes, settled Sep 23, 2025 UTC

Yes

100.0%

0.0%

Final Yes 100¢Final No 0¢

Lifetime volume

$8.2K

Resolved

Yes

Settled

Sep 23, 2025 UTC

Where it stands

Resolved Yes on 23 Sep 2025.

The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 94.5%. Yes opened at 70% on 14 Aug 2025. Before it settled, across the 41 daily closes on record from 14 Aug 2025 to 23 Sep 2025, the highest close was 96.6% on 18 Sep 2025 and the lowest 70% on 14 Aug 2025. Its largest one-day move was 13 points up, to 88.5% on 19 Aug 2025. $8.23K traded over the market's life.

9 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Sep 25, 12:41 AM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 41 points, 14 Aug 2025 – 23 Sep 2025, chart shows 60%–100%

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
14 Aug 2025	70.0%
23 Sep 2025	94.5%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
Bright Horizon 81D6	No	28
HunchexBot	No	24.5
lucjj	No	6.25
VBVCBNM	No	5

9 of 9 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

Guinea has scheduled a referendum to adopt a new constitution and begin a return to civilian rule for September 21, 2025. You can read more about that here: https://www.africanews.com/2025/07/03/guinea-presents-draft-for-new-constitution-referendum-set-for-september/ This market will resolve to "Yes" if the referendum passes with the requisite voter turnout threshold met. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the referendum is permanently canceled or delayed beyond January 31, 2026 ET, this market will resolve to “No”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Guinea, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.