Analytics
Resolved No on 30 Sep 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.8%. Yes opened at 37.5% on 4 Sep 2026. Before it settled, across the 27 daily closes on record from 4 Sep 2026 to 30 Sep 2026, the highest close was 39.5% on 6 Sep 2026 and the lowest 0.3% on 30 Sep 2026. Its largest one-day move was 23 points down, to 15.5% on 8 Sep 2026. $1.19K traded over the market's life.
11 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Oct 7, 8:04 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 27 points, 4 Sep 2026 – 30 Sep 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 4 Sep 2026 | 37.5% |
| 30 Sep 2026 | 0.3% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| intelligence98 | Yes | 157.23 |
| 843Cc4C8e6dc29A4581126660814B0a6eF6A0734. | Yes | 150 |
| frontiertrade | Yes | 30 |
| a5533 | Yes | 20 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and September 30, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/how-low-will-10-year-treasury-yield-get-in-september
| Dr.PNL | Yes | 12 |
| TENETENET | Yes | 9.96 |
| commeowder | Yes | 5 |
| triklozoid | Yes | 5 |
| Fihdrzgdd | Yes | 3.59 |
| GuyFromTinder | Yes | 3 |
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