Analytics
Resolved No on 31 Dec 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.7%. Yes opened at 61% on 18 Oct 2025. Before it settled, across the 76 daily closes on record from 18 Oct 2025 to 31 Dec 2025, the highest close was 87% on 22 Oct 2025 and the lowest 0.4% on 31 Dec 2025. Its largest one-day move was 26 points down, to 61.5% on 23 Oct 2025. $32.24K traded over the market's life.
45 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 12, 4:02 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 76 points, 18 Oct 2025 – 31 Dec 2025
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 18 Oct 2025 | 61.0% |
| 31 Dec 2025 | 0.4% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| CharlieNovoschi | Yes | 793.3 |
| Murlo13 | Yes | 569.99 |
| hyu8 | Yes | 516.2 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between February 24 and December 31, 2025. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/how-low-will-10-year-treasury-yield-get-in-2025
| Yes |
| 389.43 |
| Bold Scout BD7E | Yes | 273.71 |
| Crimson Vector F03A | Yes | 257 |
| hhheskjkj | Yes | 240 |
| Newshound | Yes | 218.52 |
| Emerald Pioneer D14A | Yes | 213.48 |
| linglingli | Yes | 210 |
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