
Resolved No on 30 Apr 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 49.3%. Yes opened at 45.5% on 3 Apr 2026. Before it settled, the high was 54.5% on 7 Apr 2026 and the low 10.6% on 10 Apr 2026. Its largest one-day move was 25 points up, to 45.6% on 29 Apr 2026. $4.52K traded over the market's life.
6 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of May 1, 9:55 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 21 points, 3 Apr 2026 – 30 Apr 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 3 Apr 2026 | 45.5% |
| 30 Apr 2026 | 50.7% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| qbsk | Yes | 25.5 |
| polemole | Yes | 20 |
| TerranSupremacy | Yes | 15 |
| Mojito9 | Yes | 10.02 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States Department of the Treasury publishes a Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate for the 10-year U.S. Treasury equal to or above the listed value for any day in April 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve as soon as the Department of the Treasury publishes a Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate for the 10-year U.S. Treasury equal to or above the listed value, or once the Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate has been published for the final relevant day in April, and the listed value has not been reached. Revisions made prior to the publication of the Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate for the final relevant date in April will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from counting. Revisions or corrections made after the publication of the Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate for the final relevant date in April will not be considered. The resolution source for this market is the Department of the Treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" at https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=202604.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/what-will-the-10-year-treasury-hit-in-april
| rocketcrypto | Yes | 5 |
| Golden Horizon 54D0 | Yes | 5 |
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