Analytics
Resolved No on 2 Jan 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 98.4%. Yes opened at 47.5% on 18 Oct 2025. Before it settled, across the 78 daily closes on record from 18 Oct 2025 to 2 Jan 2026, the highest close was 47.5% on 18 Oct 2025 and the lowest 1.6% on 2 Jan 2026. Its largest one-day move was 21 points down, to 26% on 19 Oct 2025. $40.34K traded over the market's life.
33 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 12, 4:04 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 78 points, 18 Oct 2025 – 2 Jan 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 18 Oct 2025 | 47.5% |
| 2 Jan 2026 | 1.6% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 17.71K |
| Damp-Brass | Yes | 4.37K |
| wokerjoesleeper | Yes | 749.89 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve according to Tesla's announced total vehicle deliveries for Q4 2025. If Tesla does not publish Q4 2025 delivery figures by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source will be https://ir.tesla.com/press.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/how-many-tesla-deliveries-in-q4-2025-226
| Yes |
| 697.36 |
| Bright Horizon 81D6 | Yes | 326 |
| Emerald Pioneer D14A | Yes | 298 |
| cobble | Yes | 290 |
| Bold Scout BD7E | Yes | 270 |
| Noihsuc.eth | Yes | 178.97 |
| Bright Signal 14DE | Yes | 159 |
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