Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Jan 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.9%. Yes opened at 7.5% on 20 Sep 2025. Before it settled, across the 105 daily closes on record from 20 Sep 2025 to 1 Jan 2026, the highest close was 7.5% on 20 Sep 2025 and the lowest 0.1% on 1 Jan 2026. $38K traded over the market's life.
43 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 2, 8:32 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 105 points, 20 Sep 2025 – 1 Jan 2026, chart shows 0%–10%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 20 Sep 2025 | 7.5% |
| 1 Jan 2026 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Aplua | Yes | 1.26K |
| ThePureGenius | Yes | 833.33 |
| Emerald Pioneer D14A | Yes | 277.52 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that xAI will be, has been, or is being acquired by or merged with Tesla (Tesla inc.) by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An announcement by xAI will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the announced acquisition/merger actually occurs. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Tesla or xAI, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-tesla-acquire-xai-in-2025
| Yes |
| 253.96 |
| Bold Scout BD7E | Yes | 225.98 |
| QJC | Yes | 200 |
| Jade Harbor B075 | Yes | 145 |
| AFreeLunch | Yes | 121.95 |
| EnricoFermi | Yes | 113.33 |
| Blue-Grin | Yes | 100 |
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