Analytics
“Will Susan Crawford win by 10% or more?” is a prediction market on Polymarket with two tradeable outcomes, Yes and No. It belongs to the event “Wisconsin Supreme Court election: Susan Crawford Margin of victory?”. The Yes price is the crowd's implied probability that the question resolves Yes; every trade on the public order book moves it.
The venue reports this market as closed. Its scheduled close is Apr 1, 2025. No resolved outcome is inferred from a closed or suspended state.
Vultax observes this market from Polymarket's public order book and data API and keeps its own record: 46 hourly price points from Apr 1, 2025 to May 16, 2025 (Yes between 11.0% and 99.7%); 128 loaded holder wallets, the largest ten holding 85.7% of the loaded shares; 500 recent public fills from 422 wallets. Each figure carries its observation time; nothing here is a return forecast.
Public Polymarket market/event context is available; Vultax source-pack coverage is tracked separately.
This resolved market has no live orderbook depth; the public close quote is shown for context.
Nine stops, one per figure on this page. Each stop says what the number is, why it matters, and what it reads right now for this market.
Each outcome trades as a share that pays $1 if it wins and nothing if it loses. Prices are quoted in cents, and Yes plus No add up to about one dollar.
Susan Crawford and Brad Schimel are running for a 10-year term on the Wisconsin Supreme Court on April 1, 2025. This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory for Susan Crawford. For the purpose of resolving this market, the 'margin of victory' is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of votes received by Susan Crawford and the candidate that receives second-most votes. Percentages of the votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of votes each of the two candidates receive by the sum of all votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If Susan Crawford does not win the most votes, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. This market will resolve based off the official vote count once Wisconsin has certified the vote for this race. If a recount is initiated before certification, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is certified. If a recount occurs after certification, the recount will not be considered.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-susan-crawford-win-by-10-or-more
The Yes price read as a chance. A share at 21.5¢ means the crowd gives Yes about a 21.5% chance right now. It moves with every trade, so it is a live forecast, not a verdict.
Dollar value of shares that changed hands in the last 24 hours. High volume means the price is being tested by real money; low volume means a few trades can move it.
Dollars resting in the order book, waiting to be traded against. Deep liquidity lets a large order fill near the quoted price; thin liquidity means the price jumps when someone trades size.
The gap between the best bid and the best ask. A tight spread makes entry and exit cheap; a wide spread is a cost paid on every round trip.
The wallets holding the most shares on each side, and how much of the loaded sample the largest ten control. Concentration shows whether a market is a crowd or a handful of large positions.
The public fills, newest first: which wallet bought or sold which outcome, at what price, and when. It is the market's own diary, and every wallet on it links to a trader profile.
Hourly closes of the Yes price. The range shows how sure or split the crowd has been; the move shows which way it has been changing its mind.
Trading stops at the close time. The outcome is then settled by the resolution source named in the rules. A closed market is not resolved until the venue reports it, so the two states are shown separately.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 47.4K |
| ElizaBro | No | 688.58 |
| Lunar Vector F555 | No | 640 |
| Silver Pulse 1C4E | No | 460 |
| Crimson Lynx 866B | No | 325 |
| Solar Tide 1310 | No | 315 |
| Quiet Raven D44F | No | 295 |
| Keen Horizon 94F5 | No | 295 |
| Solar Summit 7F60 | No | 265 |
| Harakuku | No | 235.29 |