Will Suez Canal traffic recover to pre-Houthi levels before September?

Resolved

No, settled Sep 3, 2025 UTC

Yes

0.0%

100.0%

Final Yes 0¢Final No 100¢

Lifetime volume

$52.5K

Resolved

Settled

Sep 3, 2025 UTC

Where it stands

Resolved No on 3 Sep 2025.

The last daily price before settlement had No at 100%. Yes opened at 10% on 3 Jul 2025. Before it settled, across the 63 daily closes on record from 3 Jul 2025 to 3 Sep 2025, the highest close was 10% on 3 Jul 2025 and the lowest 0.1% on 2 Sep 2025. $52.45K traded over the market's life.

32 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Sep 4, 1:07 AM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 63 points, 3 Jul 2025 – 3 Sep 2025, chart shows 0%–15%

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
3 Jul 2025	10.0%
3 Sep 2025	0.1%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
Bright Horizon 81D6	Yes	5.14K
gremplin	Yes	1.52K
FrankyFourFingers	Yes	1.07K

10 of 32 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

Prior to the disruptions caused by the Houthi attacks in late 2023, the Suez Canal experienced an average daily transit of approximately 72 vessels. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the 7 Day moving average of the Suez Canal reaches or exceeds 70 vessels on any listed date between July 2, and August 31, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be the International Monetary Fund's PortWatch platform, specifically the data listed for the “7 Day moving average” for Suez Canal: Daily Transit Calls (see: https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/eventc1000000). If relevant IMFportwatch data becomes permanently unavailable, another credible source will be used. If data for the listed data range has not been published by September 15, 12:00 PM ET (noon), and the conditions for a “Yes” resolution have not been met, this market will resolve to “No”.