Analytics
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“Will Stripe's valuation hit (HIGH) $200B by December 31?” is a finance prediction market on Polymarket with two tradeable outcomes, Yes and No. It belongs to the event “Will Stripe's valuation hit __ by December 31?”. The Yes price is the market's implied probability that the question resolves Yes. Quotes can change as orders are updated or filled; a quoted price does not guarantee an available fill at that price.
Trading is open until Jan 5, 2027 UTC. As of Sep 24, 9:06 PM UTC, Yes trades at 58.5¢, a 58.5% implied chance, $2.77K traded in the last 24 hours, $161.99 resting in the order book, a 47.0% bid-ask spread.
Vultax observes this market from Polymarket's public order book and data API and keeps its own record: 128 daily price points from May 20, 2026 UTC to Sep 24, 2026 UTC (Yes between 34.0% and 72.5%); 20 loaded holder wallets, the largest ten holding 90.3% of the loaded shares; 97 recent public fills from 38 wallets. Each figure carries its observation time; nothing here is a return forecast.
Public Polymarket market/event context is available; Vultax source-pack coverage is tracked separately.
Current public quote is shown when Vultax depth snapshots are unavailable.
Nine stops, one per figure on this page. Each stop says what the number is, why it matters, and what it reads right now for this market.
Each outcome trades as a share that pays $1 if it wins and nothing if it loses. Prices are quoted in cents, and Yes plus No add up to about one dollar.
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB · 128 points · 20 May 2026 – 24 Sep 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 20 May 2026 | 37.5% |
| 24 Sep 2026 | 58.5% |
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Artaius | Yes | 116 |
| LornaPredicts | No | 77.74 |
| pootytherewardfarmer | Yes |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Stripe's private market valuation, as measured by the NPM Price reported by Nasdaq Private Market, LLC (NPM) for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026, reaches or exceeds the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day. If NPM has not published relevant data for all business dates in the specified period by 1:00 PM ET on January 1, 2027, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on January 4, 2027. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the data available. If NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published for the period prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as any applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing. If the company completes an IPO or direct listing before the end of the specified period, this market will consider, in addition to the relevant NPM valuations published between market creation and the IPO or direct listing date, the valuation implied by the official IPO or direct listing price, and the company's public market capitalization between the IPO or direct listing date and the end of the specified period. Public market capitalization will be determined using the highest/lowest official regular-hours trading price published for the company's primary listed common equity on its primary exchange for any trading day during the specified period, multiplied by the company's total outstanding common shares at the relevant time. If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies. If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only NPM valuations and applicable public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution. The resolution source for this market is NPM data published here (https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-6edded11-6786-4392-9695-3cce6fda0de0/data). The resolution source for any period following an IPO, direct listing, or relevant corporate action, will be official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts. Revisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-stripes-valuation-hit-by-december-31
The Yes price read as a chance. A share at 21.5¢ implies 21.5%, but fees, available depth and who participates can affect that price. A market price is not a calibrated forecast or a verdict.
Dollar value of shares that changed hands in the last 24 hours. High volume means the price is being tested by real money; low volume means a few trades can move it.
Reported dollars resting in the order book. The available size on your side, at the prices you would accept, determines what can fill. A large total alone does not guarantee an execution near the quoted price.
The gap between the best bid and the best ask. A tight spread makes entry and exit cheap; a wide spread is a cost paid on every round trip.
The wallets holding the most shares on each side, and how much of the loaded sample the largest ten control. Concentration shows whether a market is a crowd or a handful of large positions.
The public fills, newest first: which wallet bought or sold which outcome, at what price, and when. It is the market's own diary, and every wallet on it links to a trader profile.
Observed closes of the Yes price over the market's life. The range shows how sure or split the crowd has been; the move shows which way it has been changing its mind.
Trading stops at the close time. The outcome is then settled by the resolution source named in the rules. A closed market is not resolved until the venue reports it, so the two states are shown separately.
| 77 |
| zephyrblue | Yes | 46.15 |
| GuyFromTinder | No | 40.54 |
| SuperTests | No | 39 |
| vinii | No | 27.91 |
| AJSV | Yes | 27.47 |
| End123 | No | 25 |
| Hugin-og-Munin | No | 21.55 |