Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Jan 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.8%. Yes opened at 45% on 3 May 2025. Before it settled, across the 245 daily closes on record from 3 May 2025 to 1 Jan 2026, the highest close was 45% on 3 May 2025 and the lowest 0.2% on 1 Jan 2026. Its largest one-day move was 30 points down, to 15% on 4 May 2025. $22.1K traded over the market's life.
48 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 19, 3:27 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 245 points, 3 May 2025 – 1 Jan 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 3 May 2025 | 45.0% |
| 1 Jan 2026 | 0.2% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 14.5K |
| JohnnyTenNumbers | Yes | 1.06K |
| Szcheno | Yes | 389 |
This market will resolve according to the next person Donald Trump appoints to the National Security Advisor position by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on Trump's first announcement - if Trump announces another person to this position first, this market will immediately resolve to "No". This market refers to the first permanent National Security Advisor following Mike Waltz's departure from the role; any acting advisor or otherwise temporary advisor will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/who-will-trump-appoint-as-next-national-security-advisor
| FrankyFourFingers | Yes | 358.5 |
| Bright Horizon 81D6 | Yes | 254 |
| XusernameX | Yes | 234.15 |
| Bold Scout BD7E | Yes | 226 |
| Crimson Vector F03A | Yes | 173 |
| Jade Harbor B075 | Yes | 166 |
| Emerald Pioneer D14A | Yes | 162 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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