Analytics
Yes is at 63%, down 19 points from 82% when the market opened on 6 Oct 2026.
The high was 83.5% on 9 Oct 2026 and the low 63% on 12 Oct 2026. Its largest one-day move was 16 points down, to 66% on 7 Oct 2026.
It is one of 15 markets under “What will S&P 500 (SPY) hit in October 2026?”.
$545.68 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $2.36K since listing. The order book holds $20.8K, with a 2.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 54 trades, $459.71 bought Yes and $274.22 bought No.
The largest Yes position is Quilty with 139 shares; the largest No position is PrimePenguin with 352.
Trading closes on 1 Nov 2026, 20 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 12, 8:56 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB · 8 points · 6 Oct 2026 – 12 Oct 2026 · axis zoomed to 50%–90%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 6 Oct 2026 | 82.0% |
| 12 Oct 2026 | 63.0% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| PrimePenguin | No | 352 |
| Quilty | Yes | 139.49 |
| WinnerWinnerChickenDinner12 | Yes | 128.73 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point after market creation and during October 2026, any 1-minute candle for S&P 500 (SPY) has a final "High" or "Low" price equal to or beyond (above for ↑ High Prices, below for ↓ Low Prices) the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only prices achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange on which the listed security trades (typically 9:30 AM – 4:00 PM ET) will be considered. Prices occurring during pre-market or after-hours trading will not qualify. Prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Pyth after any adjustments have been applied. The resolution source for this market is Pyth — specifically, the S&P 500 (SPY) "High" and "Low" prices available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.SPY%2FUSD, with the chart settings configured for 1-minute candles. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter. Any timestamp within the listed market time frame may be used to view the relevant candle data (e.g., https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.SPY%2FUSD?t=1773432000) If the relevant Pyth data is unavailable due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption that prevents verification of the required 1-minute candle data, the official daily high/low price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine whether the listed price was reached during the applicable trading session.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/what-price-will-spy-hit-in-october-2026
3 more markets, none above 3.4%.
| sdfsdfsdfsdf2 | Yes | 125.08 |
| grasstoucher69 | No | 82.61 |
| Sp0rtBaby | Yes | 40.9 |
| Bold Raven 7DE7 | No | 40.79 |
| AJSV | Yes | 23.8 |
| k7X9mP2qW4 | No | 21 |
| pho360 | Yes | 20.1 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
