Analytics
Resolved No on 6 May 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 100%. Yes opened at 4.5% on 29 Jan 2025. Before it settled, across the 98 daily closes on record from 29 Jan 2025 to 6 May 2025, the highest close was 4.5% on 29 Jan 2025 and the lowest 0.1% on 24 Feb 2025. $7.22M traded over the market's life.
31 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of May 7, 4:20 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 98 points, 29 Jan 2025 – 6 May 2025, chart shows 0%–10%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 29 Jan 2025 | 4.5% |
| 6 May 2025 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 298.6K |
| MI1988 | Yes | 5K |
| lightlz | Yes | 2.9K |
The next German federal election is scheduled to take place on February 23, 2025. This market will resolve to the first ruling coalition of parties that forms after the next German federal election. If the next German Coalition after the election is not announced by December 31, 2025, this market will resolve to "No". If a party does not meet fraktion threshold (5% of seats) it will not be counted as part of the coalition. For example, if CDU/CSU, SPD, & BSW form a coalition, but BSW is not a fraktion, the market would resolve to “CDU/CSU & SPD”. Any party which signs a coalition agreement which leads to the appointment of a Chancellor will be considered part of the coalition. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the German government, specifically the Federal Returning Officer (Bundeswahlleiter) (https://www.bundeswahlleiterin.de/en/).
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/which-coalition-will-form-the-next-german-government
| Yes |
| 2.25K |
| fotike | Yes | 1.87K |
| ff0f010fad | Yes | 1.63K |
| a1f13fasdf13f | Yes | 1.37K |
| rt5 | Yes | 1.33K |
| colenancy | Yes | 1.24K |
| whitney39 | Yes | 1.23K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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