Analytics
Resolved No on 12 Jun 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 98.1%. Yes opened at 22% on 24 Jan 2026. Before it settled, across the 119 daily closes on record from 24 Jan 2026 to 12 Jun 2026 (21 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 22% on 24 Jan 2026 and the lowest 0.4% on 8 Jun 2026. Its largest one-day move was 11 points down, to 11% on 25 Jan 2026. $167.25K traded over the market's life.
95 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jun 13, 11:00 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 119 points, 24 Jan 2026 – 12 Jun 2026, chart shows 0%–30%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 24 Jan 2026 | 22.0% |
| 12 Jun 2026 | 1.9% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 106.62K |
| Albert 1953 | Yes | 8.47K |
| Golden Beacon 67A6 | Yes | 5.54K |
This market will resolve based on SpaceX's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading. If no SpaceX IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before 2028". Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on SpaceX’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/spacex-ipo-closing-market-cap-higher-strikes
| Yes |
| 3.04K |
| gopay | Yes | 3K |
| Apitole | Yes | 2.33K |
| labistiiia | Yes | 1K |
| norealtime | Yes | 1K |
| HerrieDavis | Yes | 803.57 |
| Turbulent-Decline-Router | Yes | 803 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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